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宏观审慎政策架构亟须实质性调整

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2019年11月16日 08:12:31
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(  频)(繁)(暴)(露)(的)(局)(部)(风)(险)(与)(疾)(风)(骤)(雨)(般)(的)(股)(市)(波)(动)(,将)(各)(方)(对)(现)(行)(金)(融)(分)(业)(监)(管)(体)(制)(缺)(乏)(有)(效)(协)(调)(的)(诟)(病)(推)(至)(顶)(点)(。而)(如)(何)(进)(行)(金)(融)(监)(管)(体)(制)(改)(革)(,大)(致)(可)(归)(结)(为)(三)(个)(方)(向)(:一)(是)(保)(持)(现)(有)(一)(行)(三)(会)(格)(局)(不)(变)(、再)(成)(立)(金)(融)(监)(管)(协)(调)(委)(员)(会)(;二)(是)(简)(单)(合)(并)(三)(会)(为)(国)(家)(金)(融)(监)(管)(总)(局)(;第)(三)(种)(方)(案)(介)(于)(两)(者)(之)(间)(,央)(行)(+行)(为)(监)(管)(局)(,即)(将)(三)(会)(的)(审)(慎)(监)(管)(职)(能)(并)(入)(中)(央)(银)(行)(,同)(时)(成)(立)(独)(立)(的)(行)(为)(监)(管)(局)(的)(模)(式)(,或)(是)(央)(行)(+审)(慎)(监)(管)(局)(+行)(为)(监)(管)(局)(模)(式)(。  笔)(者)(长)(期)(关)(注)(全)(球)(金)(融)(危)(机)(和)(全)(球)(金)(融)(监)(管)(的)(演)(进)(,倾)(向)(于)(第)(三)(个)(方)(向)(。简)(单)(在)(一)(行)(三)(会)(上)(面)(盖)(个)(帽)(子)(的)(模)(式)(可)(能)(只)(是)(换)(汤)(不)(换)(药)(,有)(必)(要)(在)(组)(织)(架)(构)(方)(面)(进)(行)(一)(些)(实)(质)(性)(的)(调)(整)(。在)(金)(融)(监)(管)(体)(制)(改)(革)(中)(,要)(注)(重)(责)(任)(、权)(益)(及)(工)(具)(相)(匹)(配)(。央)(行)(离)(金)(融)(市)(场)(很)(近)(,有)(最)(后)(贷)(款)(人)((LenderofLastResort)工)(具)(,可)(以)(作)(为)(最)(后)(贷)(款)(人)(,同)(时)(就)(要)(赋)(予)(其)(相)(应)(的)(监)(管)(权)(力)(。  他)(山)(之)(石)(  在)(讨)(论)(目)(前)(关)(于)(金)(融)(监)(管)(体)(制)(改)(革)(的)(三)(个)(方)(向)(哪)(个)(更)(适)(合)(之)(前)(,先)(厘)(清)(世)(界)(上)(主)(要)(几)(个)(监)(管)(体)(系)(在)(危)(机)(前)(后)(的)(发)(展)(演)(进)(。  世)(界)(上)(第)(一)(个)(真)(正)(意)(义)(的)(中)(央)(银)(行)(是)(英)(格)(兰)(银)(行)((BankofEngland)。之)(所)(以)(成)(为)(第)(一)(个)(中)(央)(银)(行)(,是)(因)(为)(创)(造)(了)(一)(个)(重)(要)(功)(能)(,就)(是)(最)(后)(贷)(款)(人)(的)(角)(色)(。通)(过)(有)(效)(利)(用)(最)(后)(贷)(款)(人)(的)(角)(色)(、对)(银)(行)(间)(市)(场)(流)(动)(性)(的)(管)(理)(和)(对)(银)(行)(的)(有)(效)(监)(督)(,英)(国)(创)(造)(出)(第)(一)(个)(现)(代)(意)(义)(的)(资)(本)(市)(场)(体)(系)(。  在)(英)(格)(兰)(银)(行)(成)(为)(现)(代)(央)(行)(之)(前)(,金)(融)(系)(统)(时)(常)(发)(生)(银)(行)(挤)(兑)(和)(流)(动)(性)(危)(机)(,原)(因)(在)(于)(流)(动)(性)(管)(理)(的)(外)(部)(性)(个)(体)(都)(按)(自)(己)(的)(需)(求)(进)(行)(流)(动)(性)(管)(理)(,缺)(少)(协)(调)(,以)(及)(流)(动)(性)(管)(理)(和)(协)(调)(工)(具)(缺)(失)(,缺)(少)(最)(后)(贷)(款)(人)(工)(具)(。之)(后)(,英)(国)(银)(行)(业)(挤)(兑)(减)(少)(,在)(2008年)(之)(前)(的)(150年)(内)(都)(没)(有)(发)(生)(挤)(兑)(,尽)(管)(其)(间)(经)(历)(了)(两)(次)(世)(界)(大)(战)(和)(几)(次)(大)(萧)(条)(。  美)(联)(储)(系)(统)(与)(欧)(洲)(央)(行)(系)(统)((ECB系)(统)()的)(金)(融)(监)(管)(系)(统)(演)(进)(也)(值)(得)(关)(注)(。但)(与)(英)(格)(兰)(银)(行)(相)(比)(,二)(者)(的)(历)(史)(均)(不)(长)(。  美)(国)(早)(期)(曾)(试)(图)(两)(次)(建)(立)(真)(正)(意)(义)(上)(的)(中)(央)(银)(行)(,但)(均)(以)(失)(败)(告)(终)(。在)(1913年)(美)(联)(储)(成)(立)(之)(前)(,美)(国)(虽)(然)(经)(济)(增)(长)(相)(当)(繁)(荣)(,但)(银)(行)(危)(机)(不)(断)(,造)(成)(的)(社)(会)(和)(经)(济)(代)(价)(也)(不)(小)(。美)(联)(储)(成)(立)(之)(后)(,尽)(管)(美)(国)(的)(金)(融)(市)(场)(总)(体)(运)(行)(不)(错)(,但)(按)(照)(国)(际)(货)(币)(基)(金)(组)(织)(的)(金)(融)(部)(门)(评)(估)(规)(划)((FSAP),美)(国)(的)(金)(融)(监)(管)(制)(度)(并)(非)(世)(界)(楷)(模)(,不)(少)(是)(由)(于)(历)(史)(原)(因)(和)(相)(关)(部)(门)(长)(期)(扯)(皮)(造)(成)(的)(。正)(是)(由)(于)(相)(关)(部)(门)(长)(期)(扯)(皮)(,美)(国)(长)(期)(没)(有)(中)(央)(银)(行)(。  但)(是)(,由)(于)(美)(国)(金)(融)(市)(场)(本)(身)(较)(为)(完)(善)(,又)(有)(世)(界)(第)(一)(大)(经)(济)(体)(和)(美)(元)(等)(方)(面)(的)(优)(势)(,美)(国)(监)(管)(虽)(然)(做)(得)(算)(不)(上)(楷)(模)(,但)(自)(美)(联)(储)(成)(立)(之)(后)(,美)(国)(金)(融)(市)(场)(总)(体)(运)(行)(不)(错)(。  2008年)(金)(融)(危)(机)(也)(暴)(露)(了)(美)(国)(监)(管)(体)(系)(的)(问)(题)(,危)(机)(后)(,美)(联)(储)(扩)(大)(了)(监)(管)(职)(权)(,负)(责)(对)(资)(产)(超)(过)(500亿)(美)(元)(的)(银)(行)(业)(金)(融)(机)(构)(进)(行)(监)(管)(,同)(时)(对)(具)(有)(系)(统)(重)(要)(性)(的)(证)(券)(、保)(险)(、金)(融)(控)(股)(公)(司)(等)(各)(类)(机)(构)(以)(及)(金)(融)(基)(础)(设)(施)(进)(行)(监)(管)(,并)(牵)(头)(制)(定)(更)(加)(严)(格)(的)(监)(管)(标)(准)(。  回)(顾)(ECB的)(简)(短)(历)(史)(,欧)(元)(区)(1999年)(成)(立)(的)(时)(候)(,只)(有)(货)(币)(政)(策)(统)(一)(,由)(统)(一)(的)(中)(央)(银)(行)(制)(定)(和)(执)(行)(,但)(是)(没)(有)(财)(政)(和)(金)(融)(监)(管)(统)(一)(,所)(以)(各)(国)(自)(扫)(门)(前)(雪)(。比)(如)(,意)(大)(利)(的)(银)(行)(出)(了)(问)(题)(,由)(意)(大)(利)(自)(己)(兜)(着)(,不)(能)(找)(ECB。这)(种)(现)(状)(有)(其)(独)(特)(的)(历)(史)(原)(因)(,因)(为)(欧)(元)(区)(并)(非)(一)(个)(有)(统)(一)(主)(权)(的)(国)(家)(。  2008年)(金)(融)(危)(机)(之)(后)(,ECB也)(在)(大)(力)(推)(进)(宏)(观)(审)(慎)(政)(策)(,直)(接)(介)(入)(各)(国)(的)(银)(行)(监)(管)(事)(务)(。2014年)(11月)(起)(,ECB直)(接)(监)(管)(欧)(元)(区)(和)(其)(他)(自)(愿)(加)(入)(欧)(洲)(银)(行)(业)(单)(一)(监)(管)(机)(制)((SSM)的)(总)(资)(产)(大)(于)(300亿)(欧)(元)(或)(者)(总)(资)(产)(达)(到)(其)(所)(在)(国)(GDP20%以)(上)(的)(系)(统)(重)(要)(性)(银)(行)(。  那)(么)(,上)(述)(全)(球)(金)(融)(监)(管)(体)(系)(变)(迁)(对)(中)(国)(金)(融)(监)(管)(体)(制)(改)(革)(的)(借)(鉴)(是)(什)(么)(?  如)(果)(是)(参)(照)(全)(球)(体)(系)(,那)(么)(英)(国)(对)(我)(们)(有)(最)(相)(关)(的)(借)(鉴)(价)(值)(:英)(国)(既)(有)(全)(球)(性)(大)(银)(行)(,也)(有)(全)(球)(最)(为)(发)(达)(的)(金)(融)(市)(场)(;英)(国)(现)(在)(这)(套)(金)(融)(监)(管)(体)(系)(也)(符)(合)(现)(代)(金)(融)(体)(系)(设)(计)(,而)(且)(在)(这)(套)(体)(系)(形)(成)(的)(过)(程)(中)(,英)(国)(犯)(过)(大)(错)(误)(,吃)(过)(大)(苦)(头)(,但)(在)(危)(机)(后)(由)(新)(的)(执)(政)(党)(修)(正)(了)(错)(误)(。这)(些)(重)(要)(背)(景)(理)(解)(清)(楚)(之)(后)(,中)(国)(金)(融)(监)(管)(体)(制)(改)(革)(要)(走)(哪)(条)(路)(,答)(案)(就)(很)(清)(楚)(了)(。  总)(结)(来)(说)(,要)(有)(效)(利)(用)(中)(央)(银)(行)(最)(后)(贷)(款)(人)(角)(色)(,更)(有)(效)(地)(监)(管)(金)(融)(机)(构)(,更)(有)(效)(地)(维)(护)(和)(增)(强)(金)(融)(系)(统)(稳)(定)(性)(,更)(有)(效)(地)(应)(对)(和)(化)(解)(金)(融)(系)(统)(风)(险)(。美)(国)(金)(融)(监)(管)(在)(危)(机)(后)(一)(个)(重)(大)(改)(变)(,就)(是)(把)(重)(要)(性)(金)(融)(机)(构)(的)(监)(管)(主)(要)(划)(归)(于)(美)(联)(储)(。当)(然)(美)(国)(还)(有)(其)(他)(的)(协)(调)(机)(制)(,但)(美)(联)(储)(在)(系)(统)(监)(管)(方)(面)(起)(最)(重)(要)(的)(作)(用)(。从)(这)(个)(意)(义)(上)(来)(讲)(,如)(果)(要)(建)(造)(现)(代)(金)(融)(体)(系)(,那)(么)(对)(于)(重)(要)(性)(金)(融)(机)(构)(的)(监)(管)(,央)(行)(应)(该)(负)(起)(主)(要)(责)(任)(。  权)(责)(匹)(配)(  实)(际)(上)(,简)(单)(在)(一)(行)(三)(会)(上)(面)(盖)(个)(帽)(子)(,是)(换)(汤)(不)(换)(药)(。尤)(其)(是)(去)(年)(夏)(天)(股)(市)(波)(动)(期)(间)(,市)(场)(明)(显)(感)(觉)(相)(关)(部)(门)(之)(间)(的)(信)(息)(共)(享)(和)(协)(调)(等)(问)(题)(突)(出)(,有)(必)(要)(在)(组)(织)(架)(构)(方)(面)(进)(行)(一)(些)(实)(质)(性)(的)(调)(整)(。  关)(于)(资)(本)(市)(场)(里)(面)(微)(观)(层)(面)(的)(监)(管)(,中)(央)(银)(行)(似)(乎)(未)(必)(要)(主)(导)(。具)(体)(地)(说)(,可)(能)(比)(较)(好)(的)(调)(整)(方)(式)(是)(大)(体)(回)(到)(2002年)(之)(前)(的)(框)(架)(。2002年)(之)(前)(有)(证)(监)(会)(,但)(没)(有)(银)(监)(会)(和)(保)(监)(会)(。当)(然)(,现)(在)(保)(险)(业)(和)(银)(行)(业)(都)(做)(大)(了)(,里)(面)(微)(观)(的)(、产)(品)(类)(、小)(型)(机)(构)(类)(的)(监)(管)(内)(容)(或)(可)(以)(跟)(证)(券)(市)(场)(整)(合)(在)(一)(起)(,把)(宏)(观)(审)(慎)(政)(策)(部)(分)(跟)(央)(行)(进)(行)(整)(合)(。  其)(中)(最)(核)(心)(的)(一)(点)(,就)(是)(要)(注)(重)(责)(任)(、权)(力)(和)(工)(具)(相)(匹)(配)(,同)(时)(继)(续)(支)(持)(资)(本)(市)(场)(的)(发)(展)(。为)(什)(么)(要)(对)(金)(融)(监)(管)(体)(系)(做)(出)(调)(整)(,目)(的)(就)(是)(为)(了)(更)(有)(效)(地)(实)(施)(监)(管)(,更)(有)(效)(地)(防)(范)(和)(化)(解)(系)(统)(性)(风)(险)(。那)(么)(就)(有)(一)(个)(问)(题)(,谁)(有)(政)(策)(工)(具)(应)(对)(系)(统)(性)(风)(险)(、谁)(是)(最)(后)(贷)(款)(人)(、应)(该)(让)(谁)(去)(应)(对)(系)(统)(风)(险)(?很)(明)(显)(,央)(行)(离)(金)(融)(市)(场)(很)(近)(,有)(最)(后)(贷)(款)(人)(工)(具)(,可)(堪)(当)(维)(护)(和)(增)(强)(金)(融)(系)(统)(稳)(定)(的)(重)(任)(。但)(既)(然)(让)(其)(承)(担)(责)(任)(,就)(要)(赋)(予)(其)(相)(应)(的)(监)(管)(责)(任)(和)(权)(力)(。权)(力)(包)(括)(事)(前)(、事)(中)(、事)(后)(的)(监)(管)(。  目)(前)(,中)(国)(金)(融)(市)(场)(最)(突)(出)(的)(一)(个)(特)(点)(是)(资)(本)(市)(场)(不)(够)(发)(达)(。所)(以)(,要)(继)(续)(推)(进)(资)(本)(市)(场)(发)(展)(,而)(这)(一)(方)(面)(的)(职)(能)(可)(以)(留)(在)(央)(行)(外)(。就)(是)(说)(宏)(观)(审)(慎)(政)(策)(部)(分)(,央)(行)(起)(主)(导)(作)(用)(,但)(央)(行)(未)(必)(要)(主)(导)(微)(观)(性)(的)(监)(管)(,以)(及)(关)(于)(资)(本)(市)(场)(、保)(险)(市)(场)(、小)(微)(银)(行)(、信)(用)(社)(、信)(托)(等)(监)(管)(问)(题)(。  从)(央)(行)(的)(角)(度)(来)(说)(,要)(维)(系)(好)(的)(信)(誉)(。央)(行)(可)(能)(不)(希)(望)(看)(到)(,投)(资)(者)(股)(市)(赔)(钱)(或)(者)(买)(的)(保)(险)(出)(问)(题)(后)(,都)(要)(央)(行)(去)(投)(诉)(。所)(以)(,我)(也)(并)(不)(倾)(向)(于)(建)(议)(简)(单)(地)(把)(三)(会)(全)(部)(整)(合)(到)(央)(行)(去)(。  我)(们)(现)(在)(的)(金)(融)(监)(管)(体)(制)(改)(革)(,是)(跟)(时)(间)(赛)(跑)(。今)(年)(1月)(来)(,全)(球)(金)(融)(市)(场)(风)(高)(浪)(急)(,尤)(其)(是)(新)(兴)(市)(场)(国)(家)(的)(风)(险)(继)(续)(释)(放)(,不)(少)(投)(资)(者)(对)(国)(内)(信)(贷)(市)(场)(风)(险)(有)(相)(当)(的)(担)(忧)(。而)(一)(旦)(风)(险)(爆)(发)(,触)(发)(了)(对)(系)(统)(性)(风)(险)(的)(担)(忧)(,我)(们)(现)(行)(的)(金)(融)(监)(管)(构)(架)(将)(如)(何)(应)(对)(?  所)(以)(要)(尽)(快)(建)(立)(起)(一)(个)(有)(效)(的)(风)(险)(防)(范)(机)(制)(,让)(市)(场)(明)(白)(,如)(果)(起)(火)(的)(话)(,救)(火)(队)(在)(哪)(儿)(,救)(火)(队)(有)(工)(具)(、有)(责)(任)(、有)(权)(力)(,那)(么)(遇)(到)(火)(灾)(的)(时)(候)(市)(场)(就)(不)(会)(极)(度)(恐)(慌)(。救)(火)(队)(的)(存)(在)(和)(运)(行)(机)(制)(并)(不)(制)(约)(市)(场)(和)(经)(济)(发)(展)(。  金)(融)(系)(统)(的)(稳)(定)(性)(源)(自)(内)(生)(和)(外)(生)(:内)(生)(就)(是)(有)(好)(的)(机)(制)(减)(少)(起)(火)(的)(可)(能)(、及)(时)(发)(现)(火)(苗)(和)(把)(火)(苗)(及)(时)(扑)(灭)(;外)(生)(就)(是)(良)(好)(的)(发)(展)(生)(态)(机)(构)(做)(强)(、市)(场)(做)(大)(、经)(济)(做)(好)(。防)(火)(不)(能)(限)(制)(资)(本)(市)(场)(发)(展)(和)(经)(济)(增)(长)(,不)(能)(因)(为)(防)(火)(把)(森)(林)(砍)(掉)(,让)(小)(树)(、小)(草)(无)(法)(存)(活)(。  只)(要)(有)(好)(的)(机)(制)(、内)(外)(协)(调)(一)(致)(,那)(么)(即)(使)(起)(火)(,也)(一)(定)(会)(及)(时)(发)(现)(和)(扑)(灭)(的)(;同)(时)(,也)(不)(会)(因)(为)(一)(味)(地)(防)(火)(而)(限)(制)(金)(融)(机)(构)(和)(资)(本)(市)(场)(的)(发)(展)(,制)(约)(经)(济)(增)(长)(。  (作)(者)(系)(中)(金)(公)(司)(董)(事)(总)(经)(理)()  作)(者)(:黄)(海)(洲)(来)(源)(一)(财)(网)()
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